jgreendc asked: What are the odds that TransCanada succeeds in securing permits for a pipeline to the Pacific instead of the proposed Keystone XL?
Firstly, just want to point out that this isn’t an either/or proposition. In theory there is nothing to prevent both pipelines from being built simultaneously, so that we can ship tarsands oil more cheaply to refineries in the US and to China, Korea, and other destinations on the other side of the Pacific.
And in practice, I don’t think the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline’s odds are very good. Here’s what the process looks like from here:
- The pipeline has to get through a federal environmental review, but that’s pretty straightforward as the federal government is actively lobbying for the pipeline to be built and has forbidden Environment Canada scientists from speaking to the media and is otherwise rigging things so that the pipeline sails right through the review.
- Then there will likely be a provincial review process in BC, which is the province on the coast where the pipeline will terminate - especially after the spring 2013 election, in which the party favoured by upwardly mobile Canada-born urban progressives is likely to make big gains. This is a much bigger hurdle.
- Then the town of Kitimat (where the pipeline terminates) gets to vote on whether to allow the terminal to be built. This is a town of 8000 or 9000 people with totally unpredictable municipal politics, and they’ve (wisely) decided to wait until the other review processes are complete. I have no idea how they’ll vote.
- Throughout this process, the various First Nations governments through whose traditional territory the pipeline passes have indicated that they’re going to collectively and individually oppose the construction of the pipeline. To be fair, they will see basically no benefit from the pipeline construction, but will bear most of the downside risk in case of pipeline rupture - so this is an eminently reasonable position. And they have standing to challenge the construction in court. For some First Nations governments will likely also engage in direct resistance (e.g. roadblocks) which would make the project very time-consuming and expensive.
- Throughout, the pipeline project has to convince its financiers that their investment is worthwhile. If shovels don’t hit the ground by the end of 2013, investors have the option to pull out. I would rate this as quite likely.
So I’d rate the likelihood that the Northern Gateway project to build a pipeline to the Pacific is completed by 2020 at about 15%. That’s probably lower than most people would rate it, though.
